Most agree that Karpat Oulu and Frolunda Gothenburg has the potential to be an oustanding CHL Final. ChampionsHockeyLeague.net statistical analyst Efraim Larsson agrees when taking a close look at the numbers.

by Efraim Larsson

Two-time defending Finnish champions Karpat Oulu are about to make their first CHL Final appearance, hosting the league's second title game. On the other side is last season’s runners up from Sweden, Frolunda Gothenburg, who don't want to come up short again. For those who remember the thrilling Semi-Final between these two teams last season, you already know that this one has the potential to be a thriller!

Final facts

Time & Place: 18:30 EET, 17:30 CET, Oulun Energia Areena
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Referees: Tobias Wehrli, Marc Wiegand (both SUI). Linesmen: Miroslav Lhotsky (CZE), Lukas Kohlmuller (GER).

Road to the Champions Hockey League Final

By taking four straight wins and collecting all of the 12 potential points in the Group Stage, both Frolunda and Karpat went on to the Playoff Round undefeated and in a good frame of mind as the knock-out rounds were about to begin.

Karpat started the tournament nearly perfect defensively, where goalie Sami Aittokallio did his job, earning three shutouts in the Group Stage and another two in the back-to-back games against Dusseldorfer EG in the Round of 32.

Moving on even further in the tournament, Karpat both in the Eighth-Finals and Quarter-Finals came back from a two-goal deficits in Game 1 to turn the aggregate score around in Game 2 on home ice to move on. In the all-Finnish Semi-Final, Karpat out-manned Lukko Rauma with an aggregate score of 5–4 (3–2 on the road, 2–2 at home) to make it to the 2015–16 CHL Final.

Frolunda had some troubles at the beginning of the playoffs where they lost Game 1 on the road in each of the three first rounds. Somehow they managed to come back each time on home ice, even though it was a close call against both ERC Ingolstadt – where Lukas Bengtsson tied the aggregate score with just 11 seconds left in the third period – and Lulea Hockey – winning in a shootout.

In the Semi-Finals they opened with a crushing win in Switzerland against HC Davos, beating them 5–0 on the road and sealing the deal with a tie on home ice.

Special Teams

Karpat have definitely been the best defensive team in this year’s CHL, only allowing 13 goals in 12 games played so far (1.08 goals per game), and when looking at their performance on the power play and penalty killing we can clearly see that those numbers indicate the strength of the teams. Karpat have allowed only 4 goals on 40 shorthanded situations (90.00%, which is 5th-best in the CHL) while they’re ranked 38th on the power play (6 goals on 49 attempts = 12.24%).

Frolunda have scored 22 goals on 76 power plays (28.95%) which only three teams can beat, but on the penalty kill Frolunda have allowed 8 goals on 37 chances, which ranks 30th (78.38%).
Merging the PP% and PK% together, Frolunda tops with 117.33% against Karpat’s 112.24%.
In the second game of last season’s Semi-Final between these two teams, four of the five goals in the game occurred while one of the teams was on the power play, including the OT-winner by Frolunda!

Team statistics

Karpat and Frolunda are quite similar when taking a look at certain statistics. For example, we can tell that both teams have scored the first goal in 10 of their 12 games, resulting in 8 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss when scoring first (80.00 winning percentage, 83.33 point percentage). However, Karpat have won one of the two games where they allowed the first goal, while Frolunda lost both of them in regulation time.

On home ice in the CHL, Karpat have never allowed the first goal (6 games, 5 wins and 1 tie) while Frolunda have scored the first goal in 4 of their 6 games on the road (3 wins  and 1 loss when scoring first on the road, 2 losses when allowing the first goal).

Both teams have a plus-goal-differential in each of the three periods when summarizing all games (Karpat +7 in period 1, +6 in period 2, +7 in period 3; Frolunda +7, +2, +16), with Frolunda’s +16 in the third period standing out quite a bit. We should keep in mind that Karpat have allowed the most goals in the third period (7 and 4 goals each in the first and second periods).

Frolunda have scored in the first period in 9 of 12 games, losing two of the three they didn’t. Karpat have on the other hand shut out their opponents in 9 of their 12 games (7 wins, 2 ties and 1 loss). Karpat have scored in the first period in 7 games (6 wins, 1 loss) and Frolunda have allowed at least one goal in the first period in 4 games, ending up with 2 wins and 2 losses.

What can we draw out of this? Well, to follow the statistics, the team that scores first likely will win the European Trophy.

Player statistics

Just as last season, Frolunda have some players in the top scoring column. The 29-year-old American forward Ryan Lasch leads the team with 6 goals and 15 points in 12 games, closely followed by teammates Spencer Abbott (7+5) and Artturi Lehkonen (5+7), who are ranked 4th and 5th overall with 12 points each.

Karpat's top scorer is Julius Junttila, who has scored 4 goals and 10 points in 11 games, tying him for 7th with a couple of other players. Mika Pyorala, Markus Nutivaara and Sebastian Aho come up close with 9 points each.

Abbott, mentioned above, is the CHL's goal-scoring leader this year with 7 – however, both Andres Ambuehl (Davos) and Toni Koivisto (Lukko) are tied with him with more games played. 

Goaltender Aittokallio of Karpat has collected 5 shutouts in 10 games and has allowed 10 goals on 220 shots against (3rd-highest save percentage of 95.45), which is an incredible number. Can he make one last incredible game?

In Frolunda, Lars Johansson has played the most during the season and has allowed 12 goals on 177 shots (93.22%) in 9 games. He has recorded 2 shutouts and has played a huge part in Frolunda’s success in both the CHL and SHL this season. He can definitely be a game-changer in this one!

Recent form

By taking a look at the teams' recent form we can clearly see that Frolunda are trending poorly in recent games. They've just completed a three-game road trip without collecting a single point and have only recorded 2 wins in their last 7 games. On the road they have just been able to win 1 of their last 6 games, while being outscored 23–11. 

Karpat keep putting up the points at the top of Finnish Liiga, and even though they lost in OT against KalPa Kuopio a couple of days ago, they still are in a good trend with 5 wins in their last 7 games. On home ice they have won two consecutive games and 11 of their last 24, which indicates that Karpat are a tough team to defeat in Oulun Energia Areena.

What can we expect?

To be honest, I wouldn’t worry much about these teams' last few games. It’s a huge game coming up in the Northern Finland tonight and obviously the players of both teams have had it in their minds lately.

We’ll get to see some of the most highly-skilled players in Europe's top two national leagues, and both of these teams are capable of playing with a really high level of intensity, skill and entertainment. So expect a high-quality game with some extraordinary setups, some tremendous saves from two solid goalies and, hopefully, a fantastic game overall.

So, will Karpat avenge last season’s Semi-Final loss, or will it be Frolunda who take care of unfinished business from last season and take home the European Trophy?

Find out at 18:30 EET, 17:30 CET.