After an interesting group stage, ChampionsHockeyLeague.net's statistical wizard Efraim Larsson is back. Apart from his usual comparison of winning and point percentages, he also takes a closer look at shooting percentages, save percentages, and the effects of scoring the game's first goal.
by Efraim Larsson
As I wrote in my last league-versus-league statistics article, we have to keep two things in mind two things when comparing the leagues like this:
1. This year’s Champions Hockey League contains a lower number of games in the group stage, therefore you should always remember that…
2. …the bigger the sample size (number of games), the lower the possibility for misleading numbers.
As we’re getting deeper and deeper into the tournament, our sample size obvously gets larger and larger.
Comparing the leagues like this could also get quite deceptive as a league could have five teams that have been quite successful and three others that have not been as good. Therefore, even though we’re getting deeper into the tournament and that this in my opinion might be the “least bad” method of comparing the leagues, take the numbers I present to you with a grain of salt.
Ranking the leagues by point percentage
The sample size is definitely a thing to have in mind when merging the teams from the same country to compare the leagues with each other. After all, there’s a pretty big difference in comparing the Swedish Hockey League and the Finnish Liiga (both leagues were represented by eight teams in the CHL, a total of 32 games each) with the Danish Ligaen or Belarusian Extraliga e.g. (both were represented by one team and a total of four games each). But in my opinion, ranking the leagues by their point percentage is the most accurate way to compare the leagues.
| # | LEAGUE | CT | TS | GP | GF | GA | GD | GFA | GAA | SO | GSO | W | OW | OL | L | P | P/TEAM | W% | P% |
| 1 | SHL | SWE | 8 | 32 | 121 | 58 | +63 | 3.78 | 1.81 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 78 | 9.75 | 87.50% | 81.25% |
| 2 | NOR Ligaen | NOR | 2 | 8 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8.00 | 62.50% | 66.67% |
| 3 | Liiga | FIN | 8 | 32 | 83 | 66 | +17 | 2.59 | 2.06 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 7.00 | 56.25% | 58.33% |
| 4 | CZE Extraliga | CZE | 6 | 24 | 70 | 57 | +13 | 2.92 | 2.38 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 6.33 | 50.00% | 52.78% |
| 5 | DEL | GER | 6 | 24 | 73 | 65 | +8 | 3.04 | 2.71 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 6.00 | 54.17% | 50.00% |
| 6 | NLA | SUI | 6 | 24 | 63 | 80 | -17 | 2.63 | 3.33 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 5.17 | 41.67% | 43.06% |
| 7 | SVK Liga | SVK | 2 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 1.38 | 3.25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3.00 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 8 | Ligue Magnus | FRA | 2 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 2.25 | 4.13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3.00 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 9 | BLR Extraliga | BLR | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 10 | DEN Ligaen | DEN | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 2.00 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 11 | EBEL | AUT | 4 | 16 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 2.13 | 3.75 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 3.00 | 18.75% | 25.00% |
| 12 | EIHL | GBR | 2 | 8 | 15 | 42 | -27 | 1.88 | 5.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1.50 | 12.50% | 12.50% |
CT = Country, TS = Total teams in league, GP = Games Played, GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against, GD = Goal Difference, GFA = Goals-For Average, GAA = Goals-Against Average, SO = Shutouts, GSO = Games Shut Out, W = Wins, OW = Overtime/Shootout Wins, OL = Overtime/Shootout Losses, P = Points, P/TEAM = Points-per-Team Average, W% = Winning Percentage, P% = Point Percentage.
The numbers delivered by the SHL teams during the group stage really stand out – 28 out of 32 games finished with a win (a winning-percentage of 87.50%), 22 of them in regulation time. They took 78 of 96 possible points (81.25%) and won the point-percentage column with ease.
Offensively, the SHL teams together scored 121 goals for the highest Goals-For Average of 3.78 goals for per game. Defensively, their 1.81 goals against per game is third-best in the tournament. Another interesting thing is that each Swedish team won all of its games that went to overtime (three in OT, three in shootouts).
The runner-up in P% is – probably a little shocking for some – the Norwegian Get Ligaen with teams Storhamar Hamar and the Stavanger Oilers coming up with a percentage of 66.67% after taking 16 of 24 possible points. Look at that defence! Their 12 goals against would make it to the tournament-best GAA on 1.50 per game.
Another team that performed well defensively was Belarusian club Neman Grodno, which not only had the 7th best save-percentage (94.96%) in the tournament, but also gave their league the second-best GAA of 1.75.
If you remember, Neman and Danish club SonderjyskE Vojens lead their leagues to a P% of 100% when we summarized Game Days 1 and 2. Of course, no one expected that to last and, in fact, both teams lost all of their three subsequent games in regulation time to reduce their P% to 25.00.
Last season, Liiga’s P% of 68.75 would be enough to be the first when summarizing the group stage. But this season the Finnish teams couldn’t collect more than 56 points to get a P% of 58.33, which is still third-best in the tournament. They managed to shut out their opponents five times – Karpat Oulu leading the way with Sami Aittokallio's 3 shutouts – but got shut out offensively five times as well.
One league that significantly increased their standing after Game Days 1 and 2 is the Czech Extraliga, which improved to 52.78%. That is a respectable figure, especially considering that Dynamo Pardubice, one of six Czech teams, only got 1 point. If Pardubice's games were erased from our statistics, the Extraliga would have a P% of 61.67. On the other hand, if we return Prdubice and instead erase HC Litvinov (11 points), they would have a P% of 45.00.
That just goes to show you how much a single team can change the numbers with a sample of this size.
The most positive…
Other than the Norwegian league, it was positive to see the improvement of the German DEL teams after last season’s disaster. Last season they collected only 27 points in 36 games (25.00%), and this year they collected 36 points in 24 games (50.00%). With a 3.04 GFA, they actually qualified as the second-best goal-scoring league.
The most negative…
…would definitely be the Austrian-based EBEL, which went from third-ranked 62.50% in last season’s group stage to finish at 25.00% this season after getting 12 points from 16 games. However, you should keep in mind that they started the tournament by losing six consecutive games in regulation time. Thereafter, they took 12 out of 30 possible points, so there was improvement as the tournament progressed. As Red Bull Salzburg and the Vienna Capitals have qualified for the playoffs, it’s up to those two to improve their league’s record in the Round of 32 against Storhamar and Litvinov.
Scoring first doesn’t always lead to victory
Even in the Scoring First statistics we find the SHL on top, and those numbers are truly incredible! In the group stage of this year’s CHL, the home team scored the first goal in 53 out of 96 games (55.21%). The team that scored the first goal has won the game in 67 games (79.69%) and 57 of those in regulation time. Below you can see how often the leagues have scored the first goal.
| # | LEAGUE | CT | GP | SF | OSF | SF% |
| 1 | SHL | SWE | 32 | 23 | 9 | 71.88% |
| 2 | CZE Extraliga | CZE | 24 | 16 | 8 | 66.67% |
| 3 | NOR Ligaen | NOR | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62.50% |
| 4 | DEN Ligaen | DEN | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.00% |
| 5 | DEL | GER | 24 | 12 | 12 | 50.00% |
| 6 | Liiga | FIN | 32 | 15 | 17 | 46.88% |
| 7 | NLA | SUI | 24 | 9 | 15 | 37.50% |
| 8 | Ligue Magnus | FRA | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.50% |
| 9 | EIHL | GBR | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.50% |
| 10 | EBEL | AUT | 16 | 5 | 11 | 31.25% |
| 11 | BLR Extraliga | BLR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.00% |
| 12 | SVK Liga | SVK | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 192 | 96 | 96 | 50.00% |
The column abbreviations stand for Games Played (GP), Scoring First (SF), Opponents Score First (OSF) and Scoring-First % (SF% - the percentage of how many of the games they scored the first goal in).
Actually, these numbers don’t show that much more than whether the leagues are good or bad at scoring the first goal. If we add the outcome of the games we can see more about how it affects the leagues team on actually scoring first, or trailing after the first goal.
| When Scoring First | When Opps. Score First | |||||||||||||||||||
| # | LEAGUE | CT | GP | SF | OSF | SF% | W | OW | OL | L | P | P% | W% | W | OW | OL | L | P | P% | W% |
| 1 | SHL | SWE | 32 | 23 | 9 | 71.88% | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 56 | 81.16% | 86.96% | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 81.48% | 88.89% |
| 2 | CZE Extraliga | CZE | 24 | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 77.08% | 75.00% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4.17% | 0.00% |
| 3 | NOR Ligaen | NOR | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62.50% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11.11% | 0.00% |
| 4 | DEN Ligaen | DEN | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | DEL | GER | 24 | 12 | 12 | 50.00% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 55.56% | 58.33% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 44.44% | 50.00% |
| 6 | Liiga | FIN | 32 | 15 | 17 | 46.88% | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 80.00% | 80.00% | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 39.22% | 35.29% |
| 7 | NLA | SUI | 24 | 9 | 15 | 37.50% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 59.26% | 55.56% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 33.33% | 33.33% |
| 8 | Ligue Magnus | FRA | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.50% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 33.33% | 33.33% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| 9 | EIHL | GBR | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| 10 | EBEL | AUT | 16 | 5 | 11 | 31.25% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 26.67% | 20.00% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24.24% | 18.18% |
| 11 | BLR Extraliga | BLR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 12 | SVK Liga | SVK | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.00% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 83.33% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5.56% | 0.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 192 | 96 | 96 | 50.00% | 57 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 198 | 68.75% | 69.79% | 22 | 2 | 5 | 57 | 90 | 31.25% | 30.21% | ||
CT = Country, GP = Games Played, SF = Scoring First, OSF = Opponents Score First, SF% = Scoring-First %, W = Wins, OW = Overtime/Shootout Wins, OL = Overtime/Shootout Losses, L = Losses, P = Points, P% = Point Percentage, W% = Winning Percentage
Now it starts getting interesting!
For example, both the Belarusian Extraliga and the Slovak Liga just scored the first goal in 25% of their games (1/4 and 2/8), but for both leagues these games ended up in wins. The same leagues ended up picking only one point on the nine games where the opponents scored the first goal. We can also see that the teams from the Norwegian Ligaen won all their five games after scoring first (all five after regulation time), but lost all three games where their opponents scored first. In all of these three examples we have pretty small sample sizes, but if we look at some of the leagues with more teams we can find some more interesting numbers.
The teams from the Czech Extraliga lost all of their eight games where the opponents scored the first goal, but they won 12 of the 16 games they scored the first goal themselves (75.00%). The SHL clubs have been very successful in this statistic. First of all, they have scored the first goal in 23 games, with 20 of those resulting in wins (86.96%). But how about the 88.89 W% in the games where the opponents scored the first goal? It’s rather impressive that they managed to come from behind eight times to win.
Even the DEL had pretty good numbers when the opponents scored first. Six of those 12 games ended up in a win, which is the second-best W% at 50.00.
Shooting & save percentages
The last chapter of this league-versus-league statistical examination will break down the efficiency of scoring, as well as saving shots against. When merging a team’s (or league’s, in this case) shooting percentage and save percentage, we get what we in the statistics world calls PDO. Usually PDO is measured at even strength (5-on-5, 4-on-4, etc), but the CHL doesn’t officially track the number of shots on the power play or penalty kill, which forces us to compare the PDO for all manpower situations together.
PDO is well known as always finding its way back to 100%, or at least close to 100%, over the long-term. Therefore, there are high possibilities that the numbers you can see below will change even more during the playoffs. But with a small sample size and a few games, the chance of keeping a high shooting or save percentage is of course higher than during a whole season.
| # | LEAGUE | CT | GP | GF | SOG | SOGAv | Sh% | GA | SOGAg | SOGAA | Sv% | PDO |
| 1 | NOR Ligaen | NOR | 8 | 23 | 208 | 26.00 | 11.06% | 12 | 244 | 30.50 | 95.08% | 106.14% |
| 2 | SHL | SWE | 32 | 121 | 1122 | 35.06 | 10.78% | 58 | 728 | 22.75 | 92.03% | 102.82% |
| 3 | Liiga | FIN | 32 | 83 | 948 | 29.63 | 8.76% | 66 | 880 | 27.50 | 92.50% | 101.26% |
| 4 | BLR Extraliga | BLR | 4 | 4 | 70 | 17.50 | 5.71% | 7 | 139 | 34.75 | 94.96% | 100.68% |
| 5 | CZE Extraliga | CZE | 24 | 70 | 773 | 32.21 | 9.06% | 57 | 663 | 27.63 | 91.40% | 100.46% |
| 6 | DEN Ligaen | DEN | 4 | 8 | 80 | 20.00 | 10.00% | 17 | 158 | 39.50 | 89.24% | 99.24% |
| 7 | DEL | GER | 24 | 73 | 783 | 32.63 | 9.32% | 65 | 615 | 25.63 | 89.43% | 98.75% |
| 8 | NLA | SUI | 24 | 63 | 710 | 29.58 | 8.87% | 80 | 766 | 31.92 | 89.56% | 98.43% |
| 9 | Ligue Magnus | FRA | 8 | 18 | 196 | 24.50 | 9.18% | 33 | 305 | 38.13 | 89.18% | 98.36% |
| 10 | SVK Liga | SVK | 8 | 11 | 171 | 21.38 | 6.43% | 26 | 291 | 36.38 | 91.07% | 97.50% |
| 11 | EBEL | AUT | 16 | 34 | 419 | 26.19 | 8.11% | 60 | 534 | 33.38 | 88.76% | 96.88% |
| 12 | EIHL | GBR | 8 | 15 | 159 | 19.88 | 9.43% | 42 | 316 | 39.50 | 86.71% | 96.14% |
| AVERAGE: | 16 | 43.58 | 469.92 | 26.21 | 9.27% | 43.58 | 469.92 | 32.30 | 90.73% |
CT = Country, GP = Games Played, GF = Goals For, SOG = Shots On Goal, SOGAv = Shots On Goal Average, Sh% = Shooting percentage, GA = Goals Against, SOGAg = Shots On Goal Against, SOGAA = SOGAg Average, Sv% = Save Percentage, PDO = Sh% + Sv%
As we can see, the Norwegians are clearly in the lead here where the goalies of Storhamar (Oskar Ostlund and Robert Hestmann) and Stavanger (Ruben Smith and Henrik Holm) all have played really well. That combined with their high shooting percentages give them the best PDO in the tournament by a wide margin. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain this level throughout the rest of the tournament.
Otherwise, as mentioned before, it’s pretty tight between the top and bottom – which is as it's supposed to be. The Belarusian Extraliga had a terrible shooting percentage, but partly makes up for that with a decent save percentage, thanks to the play of Maxim Samankov in net.
Did you know…
- …that a total of 527 goals was scored in the group stage? That’s an average of 5.45 goals per game.
- …that most of the goals (195) was scored in the second period? 37.28% of the goals was scored in the second period.
- …that the group stage held an average of 58.74 shots on goal per game? In total, there were 5,639 shots on target.
- …that the highest shot total in one game was 80 and that the biggest differential in a single game was +45 shots? JYP–Sheffield, (53–27) and Liberec–Nitra (58–13).
- ...that the highest shot total in a single period is 29? Frolunda out-shot Sheffield 29–4 in the third period vs Sheffield.
- ...that Linkoping HC won all three games in regulation time when their opponents scored the first goal, but lost a point in the single game where they scored the first goal themselves?
- …that the three teams with best attendance average are German? Mannheim (8,481), Dusseldorf (6,633) and Berlin (6,110).